In This Version:

Close Up on People: Patterns, Preferences, Perceptions and Potential Impact for the Future
California’s Youth: Portrait of the Future
Boomers and Immigrants: Tied Together
Other Generation Gaps: Health and Wealth

Just a reminder: Demographics reflect reality!

California’s Youth: Portrait of Nation’s Future

New America Media (NAM), the country’s first and largest national collaboration of ethnic news organizations was established in 1996 by nonprofit Pacific News Service and not surprisingly is located in California.

An extensive survey of 16 – 22 year olds in California conducted for New America Media paints a picture of what the future of California and the rest of the nation will be. Take a look at the findings…

One in eight of the nation's young people lives in California.

1st Global Society in the United States

• 3/5ths are youth of color
• nearly half are immigrants or the children of immigrants.
• apt to define their identity by music and fashion taste as by the color of their skin
• 2/3rds have dated someone of a different race
• 87% would marry or enter into a life partnership with someone of a different race; children of such partnerships would alter the nature of “race” as we currently use the term

California's young people, are strong believers in the American Dream

• overwhelmingly embrace the core concept of the American Dream; across race, ethnicity and gender
• 96% of respondents believe that if they work hard they can achieve their goals
• 95% of those surveyed expect to own their own homes
• almost three-quarters say they will have a higher overall standard of living than their parents
• more than three-quarters of California youth say their lives will be better in 10 years
• over two-thirds expect to attain at least a four-year college degree
• they imagine a more inclusive and tolerant society for one another.
• their collective optimism represents a unique source of social capital for California
• they expect to create successful lives for themselves in spite of obstacles they face

Most Important Issues for Them: Local NOT Global

• Those polled cite two, number one issues: family breakdown and violence in the community as most pressing issues facing their generation
• Poverty ranks 3rd
• Global warming ranks 4th
• only 3% identified wars in Iraq and other global conflicts as top issue

Differences on Basis of Racial and Ethnic Groups

• White Anglo young people: family breakdown as number one, followed by poverty and global warming.
• Asian Youth: family breakdown as top issue with violence in their neighborhoods nearly as important; while global warming and poverty are tied for third.
• African American and Latino young people: violence in their neighborhoods or communities is the most pressing issue facing their generation; both groups name family breakdown as the second most pressing issue and poverty as third.

Sources of Stress

• 1/3rd of all respondents say that school is what causes young people the most stress
• money is identified as the next most significant stressor
• personal relationships and peer pressure to conform rank third and fourth.
• Asian young people are significantly more likely than other groups to name school as their biggest source of personal stress
• African American young people are more likely to name money

Young Californians embrace the state's increasing diversity in concept and in practice.

• overwhelming majority of young people view the state's diversity as a strength
• they maintain diversity among their immediate circle of friends
• their interpersonal relationships are more likely to be born out of common interests than shared racial or ethnic backgrounds
• more than one-half of the White Anglo and Asian youths and two-fifths of Latino and African American youths say that most of their friends are of a different race
• 82 percent support giving illegal immigrants a chance to earn legal status and citizenship
• youth – particularly Asian and Latino youth – consider anti-immigrant sentiment to be a more critical issue for their generation than racism or discrimination

Positive image of their “physical and mental health” but there are important differences by gender, race and ethnicity.

• eight in ten African American youth and almost three-quarters of White Anglo youth rate their overall physical health as excellent (scores of 8, 9, or 10).
• only six in ten Latino and Asian youth rate their physical health as excellent
• young men are more likely than young women to rate their physical health as excellent
• when asked about their mental health, African American and Latino youth give themselves a higher “mental health rating” than their White Anglo and Asian counterparts
  

About the Survey Itself
This study represents one of the first polls of young people conducted entirely via cell phone. The sample was collected using listed cell phone numbers in the state of California. Because there is currently no way to select cell phone numbers based on age of subscriber, respondents were immediately asked if they were within the ages of 16 to 22; interviews with those who were not in the specified age group were terminated.

A total of 601 interviews were conducted between October 6th and November 15th, 2006. All interviews were conducted in English by professionally trained interviewers via cell phone.

All respondents were offered an incentive for their participation in the poll. Because most cell phone plans charge based on minutes of airtime, a “polling incentive” of $10 was offered so that respondents did not feel they were wasting their minutes and money by taking part in the poll.

Source: http://news.newamericamedia.org/news/view_custom.html?custom_page_id=340

Boomers and Immigrants: Futures Tied Together

What do baby boomers and immigrants to the United States have in common? Well, a quick look at them makes it appears as if they have little in common. One group is getting older and the other group is quite a bit younger but the reality is that the future of these two groups is inexplicably linked together.

Between 1990 and 2005, blacks and Hispanics, including immigrants, made up 80% of the population growth in this country. These same two demographic groups were responsible for almost all of the population growth among people 45 and younger which represents the younger end of the work force.

Consider some of the following scenarios?

• What group is nearing retirement in the future? Boomers
• What group will make up the shortfall in the work place? Immigrants and their offspring

Dowell Myers, a demographers at USC, has written a book titled Immigrants and Boomers: Forging New Social Contract for the Future of America. A central premise of this book is that the economic futures of these two groups how these groups will have an impact upon just about everything – medical care services, home prices, and other significant factors of American life.

According to Myers, in California, there were 9.7 million baby boomers between the ages of 40 and 49 in 2005; this accounted for 51 percent of the prime working-age population. By 2020, this same group will be 55 to 74 years of age and on the brink of retirement.

• the ratio of senior citizens to prime-working-age people, 25 to 64 years old, will jump 30 percent in the decade between 2010 and 2020 and an additional 29 percent in the following decade, according to Prof. Myers
• the ratio of seniors to working-age residents, including immigrants, will grow from 250 seniors per 1,000 working-age people in 2010 to 411 per 1,000 in 2030
• What group will baby boomers count on for good earning power to buy their homes, fund their Social Security, and pay taxes? Immigrants, predominantly Hispanics
• Will the mostly older, white retirees who account for a large voting bloc get out and vote to raise taxes to improve education for this next generation of children?
  Let’s hope so.

Ron Crouch, director of Kentucky's State Data Center at the University of Louisville,
paints a picture of what the U.S. will look like as an aging white population converges with a growing population of immigrants and minority youth and has recently suggested at a National School Board Association Conference that this older white group needs to be very interested in how well young Hispanic children are doing in school.

In California, 11 percent of African-American and 9 percent of Hispanic fourth-graders are proficient in reading, compared with 36 percent of their white peers. The achievement gap widens as children progress through high school and it is projected that only slightly more than half of all blacks and Hispanics graduate from high school in four years, compared with 78 percent of whites.

• What group will want to sell their most valuable asset, their home? Boomers
• What group will be the largest group of purchasers of homes in the future?
  Young Latinos.

Prof. Myers's studies reveals additional information about homeownership patterns in this country as well. In 2000, 2 of every 10 surnames purchasing homes were Spanish and by 2005, five short years, that number has risen to 4 of 10.

What’s good for this younger, predominantly Hispanic and immigrant population is good for the nation’s economy.

(Source: The Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2007)

Possible Generational Shift: Boomers less healthy than their Parents

Since we know that boomers aren’t aging in the same way as their parents and they have a strong preference for being/remaining youthful, an initial assumption was that this would be the first older generation in this country to be healthy in their later years.

However, there appears to be growing evidence suggesting that the reverse is true and that this may be the first generation to enter their golden years in worse health than their parents. While the data only suggests this shift, it is readily apparent that this group is not the health-oriented, workout fans that we once believed them to be.

The good news is that boomers are healthier in a number of important ways as they are much less likely to smoke than previous older Americans. However, surveys reveal that they describe themselves less hale and hearty than their parents and grandparents did at the same age. They are more likely to report:

• difficulty climbing stairs
• getting up from a chair and doing other routine activities
• more chronic problems such as high cholesterol, blood pressure and diabetes.

A federally funded Health and Retirement Study that tracked more than 20,000 U.S. adults as they move through middle age toward retirement found that this first wave of baby boomers appeared to report poorer health than groups born between 1936 and 1941, and between 1942 and 1947. Results from this survey suggested that boomers were:

• much less likely to describe their health as "excellent" or "very good" than their predecessors
• more likely to report having difficulty with routine activities, such as walking several blocks or lifting 10 pounds
• more likely to report pain, drinking and psychiatric problems, and chronic problems such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol and diabetes.

In some ways, this emerging pattern should come as no great surprise based upon more recent findings of unhealthy trends including obesity. With two-thirds of Americans being overweight, it follows that the extra weight impacts joints, cholesterol and blood pressure, and raise the risk of other debilitating health problems. This pattern is reinforced by the fact that gym memberships aside, boomers are likely to be less physically active than their parents and grandparents with their daily routines often dominated by desk jobs and the drive to and from work.

Other factors contributing to this health shift may be stress and social isolation. Boomers report having more stress than earlier generations and the increased demands of commuting, less support from extended families may result in less time to care for themselves and less social and community interaction.

On the flip side of the picture there are researchers skeptical about this shift in health among the aging population in the United States. Life expectancy in this country has continually and consistently increased and has been accompanied by a decline in disability rates. Skeptics say increasing rates of chronic disease may relate to early diagnosis which could result in people living longer lives with less disability since these conditions are being treated sooner than with previous generations.

(Source: Washington Post, April 20, 2007; Page A01)

Generation Gap: Wealth

As if there weren’t enough gaps between generations, there appears to be still another one to add to the list – wealth. According to a recent article in USA Today, the median net worth of Americans ages 55 to 64 has increased to nearly $250,000 while the reverse has occurred for those in their late 30s as their median net worth has dropped to about $50,000.

USA Today analysis of federal government data suggests that the growing gap between the rich and the poor may very well be related to generational divides. Most of the wealth generated in the past 15 years or so has been among Americans ages 55 and over. During this same time period, younger groups of Americans particularly those in the 20s through 40s have just managed to keep pace with inflation.

While older adults have always been wealthier that younger people just by virtue of time to accumulate such resources, the extent of the differences in wealth is what causes the concern.

(Source: USA Today, May 21, 2007)

TIPs (Trends into Practice)

Demographics are our reality. Take heed and make changes accordingly – now rather than later.

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© California Park & Recreation Society, 2007. trendSCAN is created for CPRS by Leisure Lifestyle Consulting of Sarasota, FL. Comments and questions can be directed to Dr. Ellen O’Sullivan at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it . Please feel free to share interesting trend information with her as well.