July 2008

In This Version:

• Demographic – Next Baby Boom?
• Hispanic Growth
• Diversity among Blacks
• Obesity #1 Concern for Children
• Human Development Index for U.S.
• Value of Statistical Life Decreases
• More Risk Stats for Kids
• The State by State Obesity Stats are In
  

Be on the look out for:

• The “Olympic Effect”. It always happens. Some possibilities for this year’s Olympics include: introduction of BMX to the Games; more women’s teams; open water swimming and team table tennis AND older athletes .

Trend worth thinking about:
Will the 4 day work week expand more broadly and even include schools? How would such a change impact parks and recreation?

Why Just the Stats?
trendSCAN receives a great deal of feedback from readers when we provide them with an extensive list of facts and stats. That’s why we are once again featuring them. If there are particular facts or stats that you are looking for that would be useful to you in your work, just email Ellenosull@aol.com and let her know and she’ll do her best to locate them and share them with the rest of the readership.

Make Way for Next Baby Boom?

Last year was a big year for babies. recently released Federal stats indicated that 2007 was a record breaking year for births in the United States. The 4+million births last year rivals the record set in 1957 during the original post World War II baby boom. This trend is more a boomlet than boom and is similar to the baby boom created by the Millennials that peaked in 1990.

It’s always of value to look at the underlying causes of such changing patterns. In this instance, demographers are attributing the rising birth rate to 3 factors: immigrants having children; professional women who delayed childbearing until later; and the large proportion of females in their twenties and thirties.

Check your specific demographics for your community. Local school districts are often good sources for these data since the birth rate has a direct impact upon number of class rooms needs for kindergarten within 5 years.

(Source: USA Today, July 2008)

Hispanic Growth

There has been a change surrounding the growth in the number of Hispanics in the United States. Yes, that segment of our population is still increasing, but for the first time in 30 years, the growth is due to the birth rate among Hispanics rather than immigration. The average of Hispanics is younger at 27.4 than for the rest of Americans; 37.9% overall, 35.4% for whites, 35.4 for Asians, and 31.1 for blacks. This difference in age averages translates into fewer deaths and more births for Hispanics.

Other related information of interest:

• the Hispanic population grew by 10.2 million from 2000 to 2997; 58.6% natural increase; not due to immigration
• during that same time period, the U.S. population as a whole increased 20.2 million with approximately 60% of it due to natural increase
• in the established immigration gateway cities such as LA and Chicago, most all the population increase is natural
• the growth of Hispanics in rural areas of the country and places where they had not traditionally lived has increased during the past 7 years
• there are 221 counties in the country where population would not have increased if not for the Hispanics

(Source: USA Today, June 2008)

Diversity Among African Americans

Radio One, the largest U.S. radio broadcasting company primarily targeting African Americans, commissioned Yankelovich to survey African Americans for the purpose of creating snapshots of expectations, interests, and life circumstances of this population. It is likely the only such survey that has included both teens and seniors in the survey.

There were a number of findings related to differing views among this target group related to government, education, criminal justice system, and other topical areas. Some of the findings include:

• 68% of those surveyed use the Internet
• respondents are about equally divided as to whether they prefer being called “black” or “African American”; 42% and 44% respectively
• 88% of respondents and 84% of teenagers have great respect for the opinions and desires of their elders
• 24% indicate they had experienced bigotry in the past 3 months; 82% believe it is important for parents to prepare their children for prejudice.
• 60% indicate that things are getting better for them

(http://www.blackamericastudy.com)

Market Segments
From a market trend point of view, the identification of target market segments are most helpful. This survey led to the identification of 11 different segments of blacks in the United States with differing circumstances and values. The 11 segments include:

Black is Better: confident and optimistic; more likely to prefer any segments that relate to Blacks

Black Onliners: mostly male, stressed by work/life balance and straddling the Black and White worlds; believes money is a measure of success

Boomer Blacks: the oldest of the tech savvy group; prefer Black children have Black role models

Broadcast Blacks: highly confident and positive slightly more females and olders who believe things are getting better for them

Connected Black Teens: high tech and highly social they have plans for their future and would prefer to preserve Black culture and traditions

Digital Networkers: over one-half of this group is high school and college students who use Facebook, MySpace, instant messaging, and cell phones;

Faith Fulfils: highly religious group with the average age of 48 who volunteer for religious or non-profit organizations

Family Struggles: mostly females trying to raise children on a tight budget

New Middle Class: best educated and wealthiest of the segments primarily between the ages of 25 and 44; describe themselves as “black” and are positive about the future

Sick and Stressed: predominantly over the age of 35 stressed about money and health and not optimistic about personal future

Stretched Black Strattlers: Primarily between the ages of 18 and 34 this highly stressed group straddles the needs of work and family and are concerned about money and lack of time

Full descriptors of these segments can be found at http://www.blackamericastudy.com/segments/Segment%20Sheet%20Summaries%20on%20Letterhead.pdf

Topical Fact Sheets
The results of the survey have led to the creation of 7 different fact sheets that address the following topics: the black consumer, entertainment and sports, general media, new media, religion and social views, seniors, and teens. These fact sheets can be accessed at http://www.blackamericastudy.com/fact-sheets/

Obesity #1 Concern For Children

The University of Michigan in conjunction with the C.S. Mott Children's Hospital conduct annual polls to determine what adults view as the more important issues or concerns about children.

The most recent report released this month (July 2008) found that childhood obesity ranked as the #1 concern among adults surveyed; last year's poll ranked childhood obesity in the number three spot. It is especially important to note that it was ranked a greater concern that smoking and drug abuse.

Top 10 overall health concerns for U.S. children in 2008

1. Childhood obesity. (ranked #1 by 35% of adults surveyed; Hispanic adults rated this issue lower than all other adults even though research suggests Hispanic youth are a greater risk for obesity).
2. Drug abuse. Drug abuse is viewed as a bigger health concern among Hispanic adults and among adults with lower incomes.
3. Smoking. Adults previously ranked this concern as number one but has dropped to the number 3 spot.
4. Bullying. This issue was a new addition to the list and rated highly among adults with and without children in their homes. Middle income adults were most likely to rank this as a concern.
5. Internet safety. Twenty-seven percent of adults identified this as a serious health concern' concern ranked highest among household incomes of $100,000 or more per year.
6. Child abuse and neglect. The perception of this issue changed over one year. Its ranking increased to #6 from #10 in 2007.
7. Teen pregnancy. African American adults rate this issue as their top health concern for youth at 35% followed by Hispanic adults at 33%.
8. Alcohol abuse. Twenty-three percent of adults identified alcohol abuse as a serious health concern; this issue ranked 4 th in 2007.
9. There are 2 issues tied for 9 th spot: Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Sexually transmitted infection. AD/HD was new to the 2008 list and was of greater concern among adults living in low income households. Sexually transmitted infection among youth continues to be a concern ranked 9 th for the second year in a row .
10. Two issues tied for 10 th : Chemicals in the environment and Not Enough Opportunities for Physical Activity. This was another new addition to the list and this concern ranked higher among Hispanic adults and adults from low income households. Not enough opportunities for physical activity. This likely reinforces the emphasis upon childhood obesity.

Health concerns that made the list in 2007 but did not re-appear on the 2008 list were motor vehicle accidents and school violence. Other issues that did not receive top rankings were depression, asthma, eating disorders, neighborhood safety, autism, and suicide.

 Issues that did not rank among the top 10 overall health concerns, but were included in the National Poll on Children's Health include: driving accidents, depression, asthma, eating disorders, neighborhood safety, school violence, autism and suicide.

About the Survey: The National Poll on Children's Health used data from a national online survey conducted in April 2008 in collaboration with Knowledge Networks Inc. The survey was administered to a random sample of 2,064 adults, ages 18 and older, who are a part of Knowledge Network's online KnowledgePanel SM U.S. population figures from the U.S. Census Bureau.

(http://www2.med.umich.edu/prmc/media/newsroom/details.cfm?ID=448)

What About Human Development?

The American Human Development Project includes an American Human Development Index that provides a measure of well-being for Americans in three important areas: health, education, and income. This index is the first of its kind and is intended to provide a snapshot of Americans' well-being by gender, race, and ethnicity presented by Congressional districts.

Using government statistics, the American Human Development Report 2008-2009 demonstrates that opportunities for well-being and quality of life are not available equally shared by all residents. Just a few of the findings include:

• The education level for adults living in the Texas ' 29th Congressional District is at about the level of the U.S. average in the early 1970s. This is based upon the percentage of the adult population with less than a high school degree.
• Earnings are not spread equally either, among the 436 Congressional districts, New York 's 14th District (in Manhattan ) ranks first and California 's 20th District (around Fresno ) ranks last for earnings. The average resident of New York 's 14th District earns more than three times as much as the average California 's 20th District resident.
• Nationally, Asian males have the highest human development index score (health, education, and income) and African American males the lowest. The gap is projected to be 50 years between the two groups.
• While the United States spends approximately $5.2 billion every day on health care which is more than any other nation in the world, Americans live shorter lives than citizens of every Western European and Nordic country except for one.

Quotes from the authors:

• Some Americans are living anywhere from 30 to 50 years behind others when it comes to issues we all care about: health, education and standard of living. For example, the state human development index shows that people in last-ranked Mississippi are living 30 years behind those in first-ranked Connecticut .” Sarah Burd-Sharps, co-author of the book.
• This is not a report about one group of Americans or another; it is about all of us,”. “By ranking the fifty states, the 436 congressional districts, and the major racial and ethnic groups, the American Human Development Index allows everyone to see where his or her community fits in terms of access to opportunity and standard of living. Kristen Lewis, co-author

About this Type of Index: The United Nations Human Development Report was first published 18 years ago and since that time more than 140 countries have replicated the human development index for their country. This is the first time this index has been compiled for the United States . The purpose is to use data to develop policies that will improve their citizen's standard of living.

(http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian, July 2008)

Value of Statistical Life Decreases

The value of the statistical live of a human life as calculated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has decreased. The CPA has lowered its estimate of a life's value from $8.04 million to 7.22 million. Wonder why they calculate such things? Various governmental agencies calculate the dollar value of an average American's life to weigh it again the cost of potential lifesaving policies. It is a method of determining whether the cost of implementing a new policy is offset by the dollar value of each human life affected by the policy. ( Washington Post, July 2008)

More On Kids and Risks

The most recent reports from the Youth Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (TBRFSS) have been released. This system enables the federal government to track increases and decreases in different risk factors for youth such as seat belt practices, weapon carrying, drug and/or alcohol use, tobacco use, sexual behavior, physical activity, etc.

Not every state is surveyed every year. The State of California was not surveyed specifically this year , BUT there were several districts in the State that were. Those districts are San Bernardino , San Diego , and San Francisco . The findings should give you an approximate trend line.

Each risk factor is placed in one of three categories compared to youth in the rest of the United States . The categories are less risk, equal risk, and greater risk. For the purposes of space, those factors that of “greater risk” for each district is listed as follows:

The complete list of findings which is a two page list for each district can be reviewed at http://www.cdc.gov/HealthyYouth/yrbs/state_district_comparisons.htm

Just Out: The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Info

You probably remember this survey because it always generates a great deal of attention in the media as the “fattest” states in the United States are reminded of that fact. Well, the latest data is out and here are the specifics for California related to normal weight, overweight, and obesity percentages:

These designations are based upon range of Body Mass Index (BMI). The BMI ranges are as follows: normal = 24.9 or less; overweight = 25.0 – 29.9; and obese = 30.0 – 99.8

This is pretty good news for the State of California overall. Obesity levels have remained the same which is better than increasing. There has only been a small decrease of .02 in the normal range that has shifted to mark the same small increase in the overweight designation.

The National Picture
The weight figures are based upon self-reports from adults surveyed. The proportion of U.S. adults who self reported they are obese increased nearly 2 percent between 2005 and 2007. Approximately, 25.6% of adults in this country reported being obese in 2007. This is compared to 23.9 percent in 2005 which is an increase of 1.7 percent.

There are three states, Alabama , Mississippi , and Tennessee , where the proporation of self-reported obesity among adults age 18 or over was above 30 percent. Colorado still holds it ranking with the lowest obesity prevalence at 18.7 percent.

To find your own BMI index: http://www.nhlbisupport.com/bmi/

(http://www.cdc.gov/media/pressrel/2008/r080717.htm)

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© California Park & Recreation Society, 2008. trendSCAN is created for CPRS by Leisure Lifestyle Consulting of Sarasota, FL. Comments and questions can be directed to Dr. Ellen O’Sullivan at leisurlife@aol.com. Please feel free to share interesting trend information with her as well.